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Oxford 4–0 Fleetwood Town

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford win57%1.67
Draw24%4.07
Fleetwood Town win19%5.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford −0.7553%1.85
Fleetwood Town −0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Cameron Brannagan · Oxford
30'⚽Mark Harris · Oxford
35'🟨Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town
43'⚽Owen Dale · Oxford
48'🟨Bosun Lawal · Fleetwood Town
83'⚽Mark Harris · Oxford

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
23Shots12
13On target4
7Corners3
10Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOxfordFleetwood Town
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Kassam Stadium
coach days152.00122.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.164.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.49
elo1481.761373.99
elo momentum (last 5)-2.1410.52
eye test v1-0.07-0.00
eye trend v1-0.26-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)56.8051.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.690.67
league points64.0034.00
league rank7.0023.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2068.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.80
rest days2.962.96
scorer concentration0.160.22
season ppg1.600.85
shot diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.40
skill v1-0.10-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
state index-0.18-0.40
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20