← EFL League One 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 43% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Exeter win | 28% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Liam Kinsella · Cheltenham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ben Williams · Cheltenham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Exeter |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jordan Thomas · Cheltenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joe Nuttall · Cheltenham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Josh Harrop · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Reece Cole · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| coach days | 670.00 | 548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1396.48 | 1418.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.49 | 26.08 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |