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Peterboro 1–3 Carlisle

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win77%1.25
Draw15%6.50
Carlisle win8%12.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro −1.7552%1.88
Carlisle −1.7548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over68%1.40
Under32%3.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Jack Ellis · Carlisle
27'⚽Jon Mellish · Carlisle
33'🟨Jon Mellish · Carlisle
49'⚽Jon Mellish · Carlisle
58'⚽Jon Mellish · Carlisle
61'⚽Joel Randall · Peterboro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots12
2On target5
4Corners3
3Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroCarlisle
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.680.67
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days453.00787.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-5.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.408.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.971.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.550.34
elo1580.911275.84
elo momentum (last 5)22.86-21.35
eye test v10.56-0.83
eye trend v1-0.140.59
first sub minute (last 10)64.5062.70
form points (last 5)12.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.410.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.730.60
league points71.0024.00
league rank5.0024.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0064.80
possession avg (last 5)64.6047.60
rest days13.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.17
season ppg1.870.62
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-8.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.808.60
skill v11.66-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)2.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
state index0.62-1.40
sterile dominance v11.33-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.230.17
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60