← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 46% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
| Cheltenham win | 25% | 3.87 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Cheltenham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Cheltenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 82' | ⚽ | Aidan Keena · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 119.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.68 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1385.73 | 1384.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.00 | -27.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 59.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.20 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |