← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Blackpool win | 20% | 4.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Blackpool −0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Karamoko Dembélé · Blackpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hayden Coulson · Blackpool |
| 64' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Blackpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 575.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1601.37 | 1515.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.70 | 4.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| league points | 78.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 145.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |