← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 63% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Northampton win | 14% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Northampton +1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 50' | 🟨 | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sonny Bradley · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 1146.00 | 569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1431.94 | 1614.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.16 | 14.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 50.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |