← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Middleton
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Carlisle win | 18% | 5.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Carlisle +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.77 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Daniel Butterworth · Carlisle |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nick Freeman · Stevenage |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Taylor Charters · Carlisle |
| 65' | ⚽ | Daniel Butterworth · Carlisle |
| 67' | 🟨 | Harrison Neal · Carlisle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniel Butterworth · Carlisle |
| 77' | 🟨 | Harry Lewis · Carlisle |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex MacDonald · Stevenage |
| 90' | ⚽ | Terence Vancooten · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 14 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| coach days | 781.00 | 753.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1271.97 | 1473.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.19 | -18.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |