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Fleetwood Town 1–1 Charlton

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton win37%2.61
Fleetwood Town win35%2.81
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton +052%1.88
Fleetwood Town +048%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Jayden Stockley · Fleetwood Town
45'⚽ (pen)Alfie May · Charlton
84'⚽Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town
88'🟨Ryan Broom · Fleetwood Town
90'🟨Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town
90'🟨Freddie Ladapo · Charlton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots13
7On target7
10Corners6
13Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFleetwood TownCharlton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.630.76
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHighbury Stadium
coach days106.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.501.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.48
elo1385.411456.37
elo momentum (last 5)25.3442.38
eye test v1-0.16-0.30
eye trend v1-0.270.45
first sub minute (last 10)45.6060.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.630.70
league points33.0044.00
league rank23.0018.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0060.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4047.40
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg0.871.16
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.80
skill v1-0.69-1.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
state index-0.150.19
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60