← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Burton win | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Burton −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Jake Caprice · Burton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 41' | ⚽ | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 45' | 🟥 | Zak Jules · Exeter |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rekeem Harper · Burton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Exeter |
| 83' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mustapha Carayol · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 532.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1411.16 | 1387.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.07 | -43.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 59.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -2.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |