← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Bolton win | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kane Wilson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 562.00 | 1354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1607.00 | 1588.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.63 | 5.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 75.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 103.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |