← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
| Oxford win | 21% | 4.56 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bolton −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Nathanael Ogbeta · Bolton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Owen Dale · Oxford |
| 59' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1350.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1576.53 | 1484.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.84 | -14.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 71.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |