← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 36% | 40% | 2.79 | value: +11% |
| Exeter win | 34% | 30% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Exeter +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jason Sraha · Shrewsbury |
| 6' | 🟥 | Jordan Shipley · Shrewsbury |
| 27' | 🟨 | Vincent Harper · Exeter |
| 29' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 33' | ⚽ | Will Aimson · Exeter |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Shrewsbury |
| 41' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Exeter |
| 42' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Eisa · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days | 71.00 | 528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1376.25 | 1391.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.22 | -21.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |