← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 68% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
| Burton win | 11% | 8.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Portsmouth −1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Mark Helm · Burton |
| 24' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Max Crocombe · Burton |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Kusini Yengi · Portsmouth |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kusini Yengi · Portsmouth |
| 80' | ⚽ | John Brayford · Burton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mustapha Carayol · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 436.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1597.14 | 1391.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.49 | -26.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 77.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -2.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -2.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |