← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 |
| Reading win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Derby −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Tyler Bindon · Reading |
| 32' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 47' | 🟨 | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
| 49' | 🟨 | Clinton Mola · Reading |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dwight Gayle · Derby |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 59' | 🟥 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joel Pereira · Reading |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 79' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 558.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1602.25 | 1459.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.02 | -17.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 72.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 31.41 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 169.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |