← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
| Carlisle win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Barnsley +0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Luke Armstrong · Carlisle |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jordan Williams · Barnsley |
| 49' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Barnsley |
| 66' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jon Russell · Barnsley |
| 87' | ⚽ | Daniel Butterworth · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Killip · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| coach days | 770.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1282.26 | 1579.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.43 | -2.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.37 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |