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Burton 1–3 Peterboro

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win61%1.57
Draw22%4.34
Burton win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burton +151%1.92
Peterboro +149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.74
Under44%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Adedeji Oshilaja · Burton
56'⚽Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro
61'🟨Jadel Katongo · Peterboro
70'⚽Ademola Ola-Adebomi · Burton
87'🟨Thomas Hamer · Burton
88'⚽Josh Knight · Peterboro
90'⚽Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots14
2On target7
3Corners3
11Fouls5
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurtonPeterboro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.690.66
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePirelli Stadium
coach days68.00433.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.604.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.407.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.052.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.620.58
elo1401.341573.11
elo momentum (last 5)-4.10-13.25
eye test v1-0.400.29
eye trend v10.18-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)57.9064.90
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.750.75
league points39.0065.00
league rank20.005.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.4084.80
possession avg (last 5)44.8063.60
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.140.21
season ppg1.111.86
shot diff avg (last 5)5.403.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.40
skill v1-1.681.57
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
state index-0.430.11
sterile dominance v1-1.381.18
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40