← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 45% | 55% | 2.13 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 27% | 20% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Lincoln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Herbie Kane · Barnsley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 52' | 🟨 | Devante Cole · Barnsley |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 58' | ⚽ | Daniel Mandroiu · Lincoln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 77' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Lincoln |
| 86' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 647.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1606.15 | 1499.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.19 | 25.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.89 |
| league points | 67.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 23.92 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |