← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 66% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 |
| Port Vale win | 13% | 7.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −1.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Derby −1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Kacper Łopata · Derby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 44' | ⚽ | Dwight Gayle · Derby |
| 58' | ⚽ | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 548.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1584.68 | 1327.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.69 | -24.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 66.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |