← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Charlton win | 16% | 6.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Derby −1 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Sonny Bradley · Derby |
| 39' | ⚽ | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joe Wildsmith · Derby |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Macaulay Gillesphey · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 544.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1600.72 | 1417.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.36 | -7.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 66.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.42 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 188.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |