← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 54% | 50% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 20% | 24% | 4.98 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Reading −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jordan Shipley · Shrewsbury |
| 5' | ⚽ | Tom Bayliss · Shrewsbury |
| 9' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 19' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 32' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tom Bloxham · Shrewsbury |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jack Hinchy · Shrewsbury |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ryan Bowman · Shrewsbury |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nohan Kenneh · Shrewsbury |
| 74' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Shipley · Shrewsbury |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clinton Mola · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Smith · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 268.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1475.46 | 1373.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.55 | 11.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |