← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 36% | 2.76 |
| Port Vale win | 34% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Port Vale +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Lincoln |
| 14' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 20' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 68' | 🟨 | Thomas Sang · Port Vale |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesse Debrah · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 23.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1339.89 | 1479.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.14 | 25.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.49 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |