← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 45% | 2.21 |
| Fleetwood Town win | 28% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Vincent Harper · Exeter |
| 50' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 74' | 🟨 | Viljami Sinisalo · Exeter |
| 74' | ⚽ | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yanic Wildschut · Exeter |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ryan Broom · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 511.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1394.72 | 1360.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.00 | 28.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |