← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 38% | 2.52 |
| Northampton win | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.17 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Northampton +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Marc Leonard · Northampton |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Louie Moulden · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 54.00 | 1118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1431.36 | 1450.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.39 | 1.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| league points | 38.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.44 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |