← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 38% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Bolton win | 34% | 36% | 2.93 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bolton +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Blackpool |
| 27' | ⚽ | Marvin Ekpiteta · Blackpool |
| 30' | 🟨 | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Bolton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daniel Grimshaw · Blackpool |
| 66' | 🟥 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Jake Beesley · Blackpool |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 299.00 | 1333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1491.55 | 1603.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.31 | -0.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 50.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 26.74 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 42.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |