← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Port Vale win | 21% | 4.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Port Vale −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.76 |
| Over | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 45' | 🟨 | Connor Ripley · Port Vale |
| 45' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ryan Loft · Port Vale |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Curtis Davies · Port Vale |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jack Shepherd · Cheltenham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Will Ferry · Cheltenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| coach days | 626.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1401.80 | 1354.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.28 | -28.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.02 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |