← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Carlisle win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Carlisle +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.60 |
| Over | 39% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Sullay Kaikai · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lyle Taylor · Cambridge |
| 68' | 🟨 | Daniel Butterworth · Carlisle |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Samuel Lavelle · Cambridge |
| 72' | ⚽ | Elias Kachunga · Cambridge |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ryan Bennett · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| coach days | 746.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1305.69 | 1371.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.31 | -4.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.22 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.46 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |