← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Charlton win | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bolton −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Victor Adeboyejo · Bolton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Thierry Small · Charlton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Conor Coventry · Charlton |
| 40' | ⚽ | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 49' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Edmond-Paris Maghoma · Bolton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Daniel Kanu · Charlton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Daniel Kanu · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| Edmond-Paris Maghoma · Bolton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Bolton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfie May · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1326.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1603.64 | 1407.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.42 | -24.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 62.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.54 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 290.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |