⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Leyton Orient 4–3 Northampton

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient win59%1.63
Draw24%4.00
Northampton win17%5.87

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient −0.7553%1.81
Northampton −0.7547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
31'🟨Dominic Gape · Northampton
35'⚽Ollie O'Neill · Leyton Orient
41'🟨Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient
45'⚽Marc Leonard · Northampton
58'⚽Shaqai Forde · Leyton Orient
77'⚽Kieron Bowie · Northampton
80'⚽Ruel Sotiriou · Leyton Orient
83'⚽Tyreece Simpson · Northampton
90'🟨Jon Guthrie · Northampton
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots9
8On target3
8Corners2
12Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientNorthampton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.570.46
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaughan Group Stadium
Ruel Sotiriou
· Leyton Orient
coach days714.001107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.17
dominance (last 5)0.590.46
elo1486.431442.30
elo momentum (last 5)19.66-18.20
eye test v10.70-0.38
eye trend v10.320.16
first sub minute (last 10)54.0052.60
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.790.60
league points45.0041.00
league rank10.0012.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6071.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8047.00
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.260.34
season ppg1.451.37
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.40
skill v1-0.70-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.80
state index0.19-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.31-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40