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Port Vale 2–2 Stevenage

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Tallis

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stevenage win48%2.02
Draw28%3.40
Port Vale win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Port Vale +0.552%1.85
Stevenage +0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (og)Terence Vancooten · Port Vale
28'🟨Jason Lowe · Port Vale
33'🟨Carl Piergianni · Stevenage
37'🟨Jake Forster-Caskey · Stevenage
52'⚽Jamie Reid · Stevenage
58'⚽Terence Vancooten · Stevenage
82'🟨Alex Mighten · Port Vale
89'🟨Thomas Sang · Port Vale
90'🟨Dan Butler · Stevenage
90'🟨Craig MacGillivray · Stevenage
90'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots11
4On target4
4Corners1
14Fouls13
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPort ValeStevenage
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.400.71
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVale Park
Funso Ojo
· Port Vale
coach days9.00711.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.503.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.10
dominance (last 5)0.440.58
elo1352.101506.81
elo momentum (last 5)-41.388.79
eye test v1-0.37-0.68
eye trend v1-0.98-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)48.5066.60
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.750.72
league points30.0052.00
league rank21.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0061.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0047.20
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.320.34
season ppg1.071.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.60
skill v1-1.03-1.61
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
state index-1.240.18
sterile dominance v1-0.74-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.170.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80