← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Middleton
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 46% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Fleetwood Town win | 26% | 3.89 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.75 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 34' | ⚽ | Promise Omochere · Fleetwood Town |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jayden Stockley · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟥 | Bosun Lawal · Fleetwood Town |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lasse Sorensen · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 101.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1467.48 | 1370.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.00 | 29.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.83 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |