← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 65% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 |
| Shrewsbury win | 13% | 7.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby −1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Carl Winchester · Shrewsbury |
| 54' | ⚽ | Max Bird · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 84' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 87' | ⚽ | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 527.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.50 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1599.36 | 1371.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.98 | 11.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 59.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |