← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 41% | 64% | 2.36 | value: +50% ⚠ |
| Leyton Orient win | 31% | 14% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Barnsley −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ruel Sotiriou · Leyton Orient |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
| 88' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 89' | 🟥 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maël de Gevigney · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ollie O'Neill · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Pigott · Leyton Orient |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| ⚽ |
| Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 619.00 | 711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1579.97 | 1492.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.24 | 52.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 25.01 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |