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Cheltenham 1–3 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cheltenham win36%2.68
Wycombe win35%2.82
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cheltenham +052%1.89
Wycombe +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.70
Over44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Jack Grimmer · Wycombe
29'⚽Garath McCleary · Wycombe
38'🟨Jack Grimmer · Wycombe
49'⚽ (og)Curtis Davies · Wycombe
58'⚽Matty Taylor · Cheltenham
60'🟨Matt Butcher · Wycombe
87'🟨Matty Taylor · Cheltenham

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots11
3On target4
8Corners6
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCheltenhamWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.16
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.730.58
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCompletely-Suzuki Stadium
coach days612.00367.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.82
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.60
elo1388.091433.80
elo momentum (last 5)0.02-3.82
eye test v1-0.25-0.78
eye trend v10.070.26
first sub minute (last 10)41.8063.70
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.65
league points23.0031.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)53.0066.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8048.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.19
season ppg0.851.11
shot diff avg (last 5)2.406.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.0018.80
skill v1-2.60-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
state index-0.27-0.39
sterile dominance v1-1.85-0.94
threat rate (last 10)0.320.29
threat rate (last 3)0.300.32
threat rate (last 5)0.320.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60