← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 43% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Burton win | 27% | 3.77 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.25 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Burton +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Burton |
| 21' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Lincoln |
| 29' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Lincoln |
| 29' | 🟥 | Alex Mitchell · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Burton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tolaji Bola · Burton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bobby Kamwa · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ademola Ola-Adebomi · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lasse Sorensen · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 33.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1415.99 | 1456.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | -17.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.60 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |