← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Burton win | 22% | 4.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Burton −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Morrison · Cambridge |
| 56' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Cambridge |
| 64' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
| 64' | 🟥 | Steve Seddon · Burton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Burton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mustapha Carayol · Burton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mason Bennett · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Lankester · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lyle Taylor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cledara Abbey Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Crocombe · Burton |
| coach days | 57.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1378.20 | 1415.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.59 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 57.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -2.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |