← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
| Carlisle win | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Carlisle +0.25 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon · Carlisle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Harrison Neal · Carlisle |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joe Bennett · Oxford |
| 67' | ⚽ | Tyler Goodrham · Oxford |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alfie McCalmont · Carlisle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joe Garner · Carlisle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Oisin Smyth · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| coach days | 711.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1335.99 | 1500.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.76 | 7.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |