← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 61% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Exeter win | 16% | 16% | 6.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Blackpool −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
| 27' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 35' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 39' | ⚽ | Albie Morgan · Blackpool |
| 42' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Blackpool |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 49' | ⚽ | Albie Morgan · Blackpool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Hayden Coulson · Blackpool |
| 78' | 🟨 | Callum Connolly · Blackpool |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Blackpool |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| 🟨 |
| Cheick Diabaté · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 257.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1490.83 | 1373.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.32 | 4.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 24.14 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |