← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 42% | 27% | 2.32 | fair |
| Charlton win | 32% | 48% | 3.00 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.73 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.84 |
| Under | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Corey Blackett-Taylor · Charlton |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ethan Chislett · Port Vale |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daniel Kanu · Charlton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Uche Ikpeazu · Port Vale |
| 74' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Tyreece Campbell · Charlton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Louie Watson · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Terell Thomas · Charlton |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| ⚽ |
| Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 280.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.48 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1383.49 | 1453.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.74 | -30.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 24.51 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |