← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 54% | 50% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 21% | 23% | 4.80 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Portsmouth +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Abu Kamara · Portsmouth |
| 37' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Cheltenham |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Bradbury · Portsmouth |
| 51' | ⚽ | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tom Bradbury · Cheltenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Scully · Portsmouth |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 584.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1381.35 | 1595.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.49 | -8.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 20.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.84 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 26.65 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.78 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |