← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Fleetwood Town win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Fleetwood Town +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 31' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | James Collins · Derby |
| 73' | 🟨 | James Collins · Derby |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 36.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 4.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1348.32 | 1592.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.02 | 9.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.81 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.24 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |