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Cambridge 0–2 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cambridge win37%2.69
Leyton Orient win33%2.97
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cambridge +053%1.85
Leyton Orient +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Jack Lankester · Cambridge
25'🟨Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient
39'🟨Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient
44'🟨Thomas James · Leyton Orient
54'⚽Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient
57'⚽Daniel Agyei · Leyton Orient
68'🟨Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient
84'🟨Shaqai Forde · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots9
2On target3
4Corners5
5Fouls11
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCambridgeLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.56
cards avg (last 5)2.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCledara Abbey Stadium
coach days31.00671.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.203.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.54
elo1385.201424.22
elo momentum (last 5)8.401.99
eye test v1-0.32-0.71
eye trend v10.390.03
first sub minute (last 10)67.1054.10
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.700.67
league points27.0029.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8065.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2053.40
rest days6.002.80
scorer concentration0.270.30
season ppg1.171.21
shot diff avg (last 5)0.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.20
skill v1-1.19-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
state index-0.26-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.92-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.350.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20