← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Oxford win | 30% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Derby +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Joe Wildsmith · Derby |
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 13' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 24' | 🟨 | Max Bird · Derby |
| 45' | ⚽ | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Beadle · Oxford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tyreece John-Jules · Derby |
| 81' | ⚽ | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 86' | ⚽ | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 19 |
| 4 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 58.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1498.70 | 1595.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.69 | 31.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |