← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Northampton win | 26% | 3.91 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.52 |
| Over | 36% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | William Hondermarck · Northampton |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Teddy Bishop · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kieron Bowie · Northampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kieron Bowie · Northampton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Timothy Eyoma · Lincoln |
| 76' | 🟥 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Hylton · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyreece Simpson · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Akinwale Odimayo · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 58.00 | 1061.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1474.09 | 1441.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.02 | -6.09 |
| eye test v1 | -1.47 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |