← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 50% | 67% | 1.93 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 22% | 12% | 4.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Carlisle −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Magennis · Wigan |
| 36' | ⚽ | Liam Morrison · Wigan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Wigan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Edmondson · Carlisle |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Carlisle |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Carlisle |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 66' | 🟨 | Liam Morrison · Wigan |
| 72' | 🟨 | Liam Shaw · Wigan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | DW Stadium |
| Kelland Watts · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Maguire · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 362.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1474.60 | 1341.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.94 | -29.02 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.40 | — |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |