← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Cheltenham win | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.26 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Carlisle −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Samuel Lavelle · Carlisle |
| 40' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Cheltenham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon · Carlisle |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| coach days | 690.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1349.76 | 1364.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.04 | 9.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 48.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | -3.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -2.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |