← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 61% | 66% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.22 | fair |
| Exeter win | 15% | 13% | 6.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Exeter −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 43' | 🟥 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kyle Taylor · Exeter |
| 45' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yanic Wildschut · Exeter |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dan Butler · Stevenage |
| 64' | 🟨 | Viljami Sinisalo · Exeter |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 655.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 4.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1496.31 | 1364.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.68 | -35.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.34 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 25.31 |
| state index | 0.67 | -1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |