← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Welch
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.50 |
| Wycombe win | 14% | 6.89 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wycombe −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 15' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 20' | 🟨 | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 30' | 🟨 | James Collins · Derby |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luke Leahy · Wycombe |
| 31' | 🟨 | Max Bird · Derby |
| 51' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Wycombe |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sam Vokes · Wycombe |
| 83' | ⚽ | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Leahy · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 471.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1582.97 | 1445.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.43 | -51.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |