← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 50% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 23% | 21% | 4.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Cambridge +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Blackpool |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jordan Rhodes · Blackpool |
| 32' | ⚽ | Elias Kachunga · Cambridge |
| 34' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Cambridge |
| 43' | 🟨 | Daniel Grimshaw · Blackpool |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Gassan Ahadme · Cambridge |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paul Digby · Cambridge |
| 70' | 🟨 | Elias Kachunga · Cambridge |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Blackpool |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paul Digby · Cambridge |
| 79' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Paul Digby · Cambridge |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jack Stevens · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Brophy · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 15.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1366.31 | 1514.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.37 | 26.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 27.14 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |