← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 50% | 60% | 1.92 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.96 | fair |
| Charlton win | 25% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Charlton −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ashley Maynard Brewer · Charlton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jamie McCart · Barnsley |
| 48' | 🟨 | Scott Fraser · Charlton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Herbie Kane · Barnsley |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sam Cosgrove · Barnsley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Terell Thomas · Charlton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Corey Blackett-Taylor · Charlton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Barnsley |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adetayo Edun · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 3 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days | 563.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1570.07 | 1484.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.32 | 16.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |