← EFL League One 2023-24 · Mon, Dec 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 42% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
| Bolton win | 30% | 34% | 3.21 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Portsmouth |
| 14' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jack Sparkes · Portsmouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Conor Shaughnessy · Portsmouth |
| 74' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Portsmouth |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kusini Yengi · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 344.00 | 1258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1590.96 | 1607.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.66 | 34.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 42.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 13.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 325.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |